The world economy will get a real-time check-up this week, as surveys from Asia to Europe and the Americas reveal the current state of manufacturing and services industries.
A slew of nations will release flashPurchasing Managers’ Indexes reports for April on Thursday, giving more insight into the economic cost of either lockdowns imposed to contain the virus, or the success of tentative measures to ease restrictions.
The U.K. will also release unemployment, inflation and retail sales numbers, the U.S. will report its latest jobless claims and new home sales data, and South Korea releases growth and trade figures. Meanwhile, in central banking, policy makers in Russia, Ukraine and Turkey look on course to add to the wave of interest rate cuts already seen this year.
Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what is coming up in the world economy.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
After a series of shocking reports showing a surge in U.K. benefits claims, we’ll finally get a better sense of the damage done to employment when jobless claims data for March is released. And in addition to PMI numbers for April, data from Germany’s ZEW and Ifo will provide clues on the health of Europe’s biggest economy as it prepares to ease some restrictions on public life.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…
”The euro-area PMI for April may provide limited additional information on the economic damage caused by the lockdowns put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus. It’s a diffusion index that struggles to capture the extent of output losses, especially at the extremes”
–Jamie Rush, chief European economist
Turkey’s central bank is expected to cut its main interest rate by another 50 basis points on Wednesday, even as the International Monetary Fund predicts the nation’s inflation rate will end the year at 10.5%, by far the highest among the world’s 20 leading economies. Additional data throughout the week will show the impact the virus on consumer and business confidence and industrial production.
On Thursday, Ukraine’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates amid slowing inflation, economic contraction and uncertainty over cooperation with the IMF. The following day, Russia’s central bank will also meet on rates, after Governor Elvira Nabiullina hinted at a bigger-than-normal reduction in her final public comments before a black-out period.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA
U.S. and Canada
The Fed is in blackout this week before its next regularlyscheduled FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
Meanwhile, investors will digest more economic data showing the impact of the coronavirus in the U.S. as talk shifts to where parts of the nation could resume economic activity. This week’s reports include looks at existing and new home sales, manufacturing and the latest week of jobless claims.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.
China will set its Loan Prime Rate on Monday, with reductions in the interest rate for banks expected as authorities continue to drip feed stimulus to the economy.
Australia’s central bank will release minutes of its latest meeting and Governor Philip Lowe will give an update on the economic and financial outlook in a speech on Tuesday.
South Korea’s 1Q GDP to Test Asian Financial Crisis Lows
Meanwhile, South Korea releases trade numbers for the first 20 days of April on Tuesday and first quarter GDP on Thursday — both will be keenly watched as the coronavirus dampens global commerce.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
On Wednesday, March import figures in Argentina should underscore the demand shock of the nationwide lockdown that’s heading into a second month. The next day, the April consumer confidence report may show declines to rival those last seen in the wake of Argentina’s $95 billion default of 2001.
Also Thursday, Mexico’s mid-month consumer price data is expected to show slowing core rates as well as bi-weekly deflation, putting annual inflation quite near the official target. With Mexico heading into what’s expected to be its deepest recession in decades — and virtually no fiscal stimulus on offer — at least the central bank has room to ease up on monetary policy.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America
— With assistance by Alaa Shahine, Benjamin Harvey, Malcolm Scott, Peggy Collins, and Robert Jameson
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